Duckerfrontier and world of concrete

DUCKERFRONTIER AND WORLD OF CONCRETE

Optimism is rising as U.S construction demand continues to accelerate. Fixing America’s Surface Transportation (FAST) Act continues to be funded in 2017 and our infrastructure repair demand accelerates – requiring innovative materials and skill sets to improve/maintain our structures, bridges, roadways and surfaces.   In addition, there are significant opportunities for investors and business development teams looking for bolt-on and roll ups across this fragmented, yet high growth project sector.

World of Concrete—a firm foundation for the entire concrete and masonry industries and the first and most important annual international event of the year. It’s everything you need and nothing you don’t. Put in four high-efficiency, low-cost, smart-work days at WOC 2017 and you’ll see your bang/buck ratio go through the roof. 

2017 WOC Exhibit Hall Hours
Tuesday, January 17-Thursday, January 19
9:30 am -5:00 pm

NEW! Friday 9:00 am – 12:00 pm

2017 homebuilding and construction materials outlook

2017 HOMEBUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS OUTLOOK

Chris Fisher, Managing Principal of DuckerFrontier – offers important considerations for the industry in 2017. These include helpful advice for business operators and outside investors looking to accelerate growth and manage risk.

Key Themes for Homebuilding and Construction in 2017:

Housing recovery and overall construction spending growth curve more like a walk up versus a steep climb – requires supply-side players to optimize target marketing strategy

  • Nationwide housing starts approached 1.11 million units in 2015 – a 10% improvement over 2014, as single-family starts grew to 715,000 units.
  • As compared with 2015, 2016 construction began on 5% more homes – on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis – to 828,000 units nationwide.
  • Privately owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,090,000 – however, December numbers aren’t in yet. This is likely to adjust downward after a strong October, a weaker than expected November and a typical, seasonally affected December.
  • Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes jumped seven points to a level of 70 on the National Association of Home Builders index. However, comments from DuckerFrontier’s clients indicate confidence is high, and “calibrated” to the new norm in housing, is highly fragmented across region and home type/classification.
  • The biggest challenge many suppliers (product and channel) face is balancing the supply and service among the most appropriate regions and customer segments. Make sure you have prioritized your targets and aligned operations – the value is in managing the demand pipeline versus responding to sales.

As housing construction accelerates and repair/remodel continues – building product manufacturer success will hinge more on channel optimization than product differentiation alone

  • DuckerFrontier’s expansive datasets regarding contractor and builder purchase volumes and loyalty indicate distributor value-add and positioning becoming more critical than product brand alone.
  • Top-performing DuckerFrontier clients have aligned with profitable and sophisticated distribution partners, which demand more margin but deliver higher value in the long run.
    • Financial strength, superior operations and technology-enabled solutions allow distributors to secure better prices, margins and product leadership.
  • As distribution continues to consolidate, product manufacturers who have Tier 3 or 4 positions within distribution will need new strategies to win shelf space and/or top brand recommendation at the counter.

Recent large-scale acquisitions (i.e., Boral/Headwaters) signal the next big cycle of large-scale industry consolidation in building products. Are you ready?

  • If recent success is any indication of future activity, then large-scale ventures and acquisitions are likely to be on the agenda for 2017. Recent transactions, such as Forterra, Boral/Headwaters, GAF/Icopal and distribution ABC Supply/L+W Supply – along with some pending IPOs – certainly make the building products industry attractive for dealmakers.
  • Private equity investors have plenty of “dry powder” on hand to put into transactions, and the lending market is stabilized. DuckerFrontier offers a full suite of identification and receptivity ideas, but several sectors we recommend should be on any M&A list:
    • Low-slope roofing and accessories
    • Floor tile and installation products
    • Aggregates and cement products
    • Smart building technologies and building access products
    • Windows/doors and fenestration
    • Lighting and hardware

The aging labor force and shortage of construction labor not just causing delays – but driving new changes in field construction and building product innovations

  • Builders and remodelers are looking to distributors to play a more important role in managing their labor shortage or inconsistencies, through more on-site support – beyond typical stock and scatter of materials.
  • Desk staff at distributor dealers providing the hands-on advice and training to new labor entrants, at a more frequent and detailed level than in past years.
  • Building product producers are focused on creating products that are easier/faster to install, and require less expertise.
    • Prefabricated – prefinished components (walls, trim, coated siding, etc.)
    • Measurement-marked materials that expedite install
    • Lightweight products for moving/installing higher quantities per man-hour
    • Applications using adhesives versus skilled tools and equipment (i.e., adhesion in low-slope roofing)

The sharing economy and b2b – construction industry

THE SHARING ECONOMY AND B2B – CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY

Today the “Sharing Economy” is strong and steadily growing in B2C markets. All around us are examples of this new business model, from the obvious Airbnb and Uber to the successful BlaBlaCar and Drivy in Eruope. However, this trend is not limited to B2C market, the sharing economy is also penetrating several industrial B2B markets.

As marketplaces emerge and grow stakeholders in the construction equipment market and intermediaries of the value chain should be aware of how their business model could be impacted:

First, for equipment rental companies and dealers – accessing the market through these platforms creates the risk of losing direct contact with the end client; an important share of the customer experience could now happen through the online platform. Indeed, the information gathering, the booking, the payment, and even the transport and service of the machine are or could be offered via the online platform. This means that as a rental company or dealer you have less direct access to your customer base, as well as fewer personal interactions. Under these conditions, how will you continue to build the customer relationship, which you rely on so much today?

In DuckerFrontier’s white paper: The Sharing Economy and B2B – Construction Industry, you’ll learn:

  • How your business model could be impacted by the Sharing Economy
  • The potential opportunities for your business to grow in this new market
  • Three ways to prepare your organization for the Sharing Economy

Duckerfrontier study: aluminium content in cars (public summary)

DUCKERFRONTIER STUDY: ALUMINIUM CONTENT IN CARS (PUBLIC SUMMARY)

7 September 2016 – A DuckerFrontier study forecasts the aluminium content in cars to increase by up to 30% over the next ten years. This surge is mainly from rolled and extruded products, where Auto Body Sheet leads the growth with an expected increase of 110% over the same period. The growth is largely attributed to aluminium’s role in lightweighting cars, thereby contributing to low emission mobility.

The amount of aluminium used in cars is expected to see a significant increase by 2025, according to a study recently published by consulting and research firm DuckerFrontier. The study, commissioned by European Aluminium, predicts that the aluminium content of cars produced in Europe could reach nearly 200 kg per vehicle by 2025, up from 150 kg today.

“We expect the aluminium content in cars to continue its growth trajectory by as much as 30% in the next ten years,” stated Wouter Vogelaar from DuckerFrontier. “Although we find total content growth in all forming processes, rolled and extruded products have been particularly identified as replacing steel in many instances for products used in body closures and body structures. For example, we expect the use of Auto Body Sheet to double over the next decade.”

Carmakers’ preference for aluminium is largely linked to its lightweight nature, contributing to CO2 reduction. Due to its inherent strength and its excellent ability to absorb crash energy, well-engineered aluminium car parts can be both safer than steel and up to 50% lighter. Lighter cars substantially contribute to reducing CO2 emissions and improving fuel efficiency. In fact, using 200 kg of aluminium in a car could reduce CO2 emissions by up to 16 grams per kilometre travelled. With the 2014 average at 123g/km, increasing the aluminium content in cars could play a significant role in enabling the EU to achieve its target of 95g/km by 2021.

“Without lightweight cars there can be no energy efficient mobility. Aluminium is therefore an integral part of the EU’s transition to a low carbon society,” said Dieter Höll, Chairman of the Automotive & Transport Board at European Aluminium. “We hope the European Commission’s strategy to decarbonise transport will stress the benefits of lightweight materials such as aluminium.”

DuckerFrontier also found that the share of rolled products grew significantly in the last four years due to the increased penetration rate for body closures and body structures. The share of forgings and extrusions in the total aluminium consumption remained relatively stable.

The study includes data from automotive companies and suppliers, European Aluminium member companies and past DuckerFrontier data. It is based on a detailed analysis of the use of aluminium castings, extrusions, forgings and sheets for 33 component groups across a sample of 93 car models, subsequently extrapolated to the entire 2016 production forecast in EU 28.

The full report (140 pages) is available to members of European Aluminium’s Automotive and Transport Market Group. For more information please contact Patrik Ragnarsson (ragnarsson@european-aluminium.eu).

Duckerfrontier’s, nick limb to speak at aama 2016 summer conference, june 12-15

DUCKERFRONTIER’S, NICK LIMB TO SPEAK AT AAMA 2016 SUMMER CONFERENCE, JUNE 12-15

Nick Limb, Board Member and Managing Principal, DuckerFrontier will be presenting an overview of the latest American Architectural Manufacturers Association (AAMA) Market Study Tue, Jun 14, 2016 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM EDT. This study includes market size, trends, and forecast. For those unable to attend in person, AAMA will be hosting the presentation via webinar. During this presentation, Mr. Limb will be discussing how the study is prepared and how prior forecasts compared with actual market results. AAMA members will also be able to gain more insight into the study’s methodology and hear an update on the 2016 market.

Duckerfrontier confirmed as knowledge partner for telematics india 2016

DUCKERFRONTIER CONFIRMED AS KNOWLEDGE PARTNER FOR TELEMATICS INDIA 2016

DuckerFrontier has been confirmed as a Knowledge Partner for Telematics India, which will take place in Bangalore, India September 21-22, 2016. Telematics India is the largest and most sought after B2B/B2C platform to discuss relevant trends that guide the next wave in the automotive industry.

In its 6 th edition, the conference will bring together expert keynotes, case studies and panel discussion. It will have attendees from various industry verticals segments, public transportation, automotive, logistics, mobility, telematics, and consumer electronics. Telematics India will address topics such as; Connected Cars, In-car Infotainment, Fuel Management, Commercial Fleet Telematics, Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), UBI, Driver Behavior Management, Vehicle Tracking & On-board navigation and more.

Click Here To Register

Duckerfrontier/sae international webinar explores the use of lightweight materials in vehicles.

DUCKERFRONTIER/SAE INTERNATIONAL WEBINAR EXPLORES THE USE OF LIGHTWEIGHT MATERIALS IN VEHICLES.

In a recent SAE International Technical Webinar, DuckerFrontier’s Scott Ulnick (Chairman & Managing Principal) and Abey Abraham (Director, Automotive & Materials) presented insights regarding the use of lightweight materials in vehicles.

With over 450 participants, the webinar addressed how automakers and suppliers go about selecting advanced materials for their programs, which materials hold the most promise, as well as the challenges and opportunities posed by multimaterial vehicles.

Here’s what participants said about the webinar:

  • Great overview of lightweighting trends, challenges, and opportunities
  • A valuable learning experience
  • Some interesting information on market trends and new technologies
  • Crisp, thought-provoking insight to the technology advancements and challenges
  • The webinar was very informative and the speakers did a great job; they were very knowledgeable on the topic
  • The content presented was very informative, and the presenters were most definitely subject matter experts in their field
  • New materials and processes to review and consider for future designs
  • Interesting to understand full vehicle challenges (specific component examples) to meet upcoming fuel economy targets
  • The webinar was extremely useful for getting an OEM and supplier perspective
  • It was interesting to hear what others in the community see as the trajectory of materials in vehicles and to learn what technologies are already in development

The recorded webinar is now available on-demand until May 4, 2017.

CLICK TO VIEW

Carbon fiber, composites are the future of lightweighting

CARBON FIBER, COMPOSITES ARE THE FUTURE OF LIGHTWEIGHTING

DuckerFrontier’s automotive and materials director Abey Abraham, also a participant in the webinar, described a need to shed an average of 470 pounds a vehicle to meet 2025 U.S. CAFE standards.

“It is essential to work on this from now,” Vallino said of the third option.

Even if this method wasn’t quite ready for use on vehicles, “we will have no choice.”

“Without any doubt, the use of composite materials in mass production will be a real revolution for automotive industry,” Vallino said.

Pulling such lightweighting off will require a collaboration of OEMs, academics, software engineers — modeling will be key, he said — and suppliers, according to Vallino.

Abraham said DuckerFrontier’s research was more bearish, finding carbon-fiber too cost-prohibitive in the near term compared to aluminum and steel. However, he noted that depending on how close an OEM sits to that 54.5 mpg-by-2025 CAFE standard, “the willingness may shift accordingly.”

The audience seemed to agree with Vallino. An informal poll of the webinar (unfortunately, the number of participants wasn’t disclosed, so treat the data accordingly) found strong support for carbon-fiber making a dent — and quickly.

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M.Scott ulnick, chairman & managing principal, duckerfrontier will be presenting on automotive lightweighting – 44th faro club meeting

M.SCOTT ULNICK, CHAIRMAN & MANAGING PRINCIPAL, DUCKERFRONTIER WILL BE PRESENTING ON AUTOMOTIVE LIGHTWEIGHTING – 44TH FARO CLUB MEETING

M. Scott Ulnick – Chairman & Managing Principal, DuckerFrontier has been confirmed as a speaker at the 44th FARO Club Meeting, Maranello (Italy).

Mr. Ulnick routinely consults leading industry and investment concerns on strategic improvement, growth initiatives and buy side transactions. In this advisory role, he participates in up to 100 projects a year, ranging from OEM to supplier to material issues, and covering functional topics from investment & acquisition, commercial diligence, product development, marketing strategy and competitive analysis. Industries of particular expertise include automotive, commercial vehicles, construction products/materials, aerospace, materials & materials forming, consumer durables, and industrial products.

The 44th FARO Club meeting will bring together stakeholders to look at the state of competition between Aluminum, Steel, Magnesium, Carbon and other solutions in the European Market.

To register for this event, click here.

Post Event Publication: Faro Club 2016.pdf

Casting the future of lighter vehicles- wall street journal

CASTING THE FUTURE OF LIGHTER VEHICLES- WALL STREET JOURNAL

Lighter materials that are often more expensive are becoming more common in car designs. Since 2009, the percentage of aluminum as a component of vehicle weight has shot up 17% to 379 pounds a vehicle, or nearly 10% of the total.

Carbon-fiber composites also are showing up in some vehicles, but auto makers are reluctant to commit to the expensive material. BASFAG ’s new carbon fiber oil pan is 40% lighter than steel or aluminum versions, for instance, but the company is still looking for a buyer.

Chrysler’s Pacifica, which has aluminum sliding doors, could be a pioneer when it comes to wider use of magnesium. Used on cars since 1920, the average light vehicle has about 10 pounds worth of the material in its composition, that number is poised to triple by 2025, according to a forecast by DuckerFrontier, a Troy, Mich., consulting and research firm.

“Magnesium has always been an interesting product for engineers since it provides a lot of weight savings but still provides strength,” said Abey Abraham, a project director at DuckerFrontier. The average light vehicle has about 10 pounds worth of the material in parts such as instrument panels and seat frames, and its use is poised to triple by 2025, it estimates.

“As the new emissions guidelines get closer, magnesium is starting to appear in more vehicles and in bigger parts,” Mr. Abraham said. Ford Motor Co. ’s Lincoln MKT luxury crossover was the last vehicle to use magnesium for the lift gate, but its volumes were slight compared with expected demand for the Pacifica.

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