Motor Oil Prices Are Rising Faster Than Inflation — What Drivers Need to Know

Author: Nate Chenenko
Publication: FOX 32 Chicago
Date: September 1, 2026

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Nate Chenenko, Principal at Ducker Carlisle, appeared on FOX 32 Chicago’s Chicago Live Prime Time on September 1, 2026, to explain the synthetic motor oil shortage and its impact on oil change prices across the United States.

Ducker Carlisle tracks oil change prices nationwide using credit and debit card transaction data, covering the top 15 oil change providers including Valvoline, Take 5, and Jiffy Lube. Over the 12 months from July 2025 to July 2026, oil change prices rose 6.2 percent. Over that same period, overall inflation ran at approximately 3.5 percent. Oil changes are rising at nearly twice the rate of everything else consumers buy.

The cause is the disruption to Group III base oil supply from the Persian Gulf, which accounts for approximately half of the base oil used to produce synthetic motor oil in the United States. The U.S.-Iran conflict has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and a major refinery in the region was partially destroyed earlier in 2026. Even if shipping routes stabilize, supply chain recovery will take months.

Nate rated the severity of the shortage at 3.5 out of five. The country has not run out of synthetic motor oil, but the right oil is not always available at the right time and price. Smaller independent repair shops face the greatest exposure. His advice to drivers: plan ahead, avoid last-minute service appointments, and expect higher prices to persist even after supply conditions improve.

Source: FOX 32 Chicago, Chicago Live Prime Time | September 1, 2026