Iran War Is Driving Up the Cost of Your Next Oil Change
09. 29. 26Author: Nate Chenenko, Chief Data and AI Officer, Ducker Carlisle
Publication: The Wall Street Journal
Date: September 25, 2026
The Wall Street Journal cited Nate Chenenko in a September 25, 2026 piece by reporters Christopher Otts and Sarah Nassauer examining how the Iran war is cascading through the automobile service industry, driving up the cost of motor oil and forcing retailers, repair shops, and automakers to adapt.
Nate is quoted on the supply side of the disruption. A Shell refinery in Qatar that was damaged is a major source of base oils for products that end up in the U.S., and it will not be fully back in production until 2027. U.S. refineries are generally not set up to manufacture Group III base oils, Nate explains, and refineries in South Korea, the other significant production hub, have had trouble getting enough feedstock to fill the gap.
The article covers how the shortage is already changing behavior across the supply chain. Walmart raised prices on its motor oil selection earlier this summer and raised the price of its oil change services by a few dollars in August. Costco raised the price of its Kirkland private-label motor oils from $36 to $58 for ten quarts. Stellantis recently switched its bulk oil supply for dealer service departments from 0W-20 to 5W-20 for some of its V-6 and V-8 engines, a change that means drivers will need service sooner. Valvoline has seen synthetic motor oil costs rise sharply since March, amounting to about $5 to $7 more per oil change, and has raised prices accordingly. Detroit repair shop owner Ali Alhumaidi told the Journal customers are bringing in their own motor oil to save money on labor costs.
Read the full article on WSJ.com: https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/iran-war-is-driving-up-the-cost-of-your-next-oil-change-b254bfb1
Source: The Wall Street Journal | September 25, 2026